Just a reminder, I went undefeated in six tries running for public office, I covered politics for three television network affiliates, I hosted a political talk show, I was a press secretary for an Arizona gubernatorial candidate and was a Political Science major at UCLA. I follow this stuff so you don’t have to.
Some say The Fourth of July is the real start of campaign season. But not this year. Thanks to an early, massive dump of radical left policy initiatives, the right has picked up their collective game.
Culture battles, crises at the border, full term abortion, gun confiscation, dispiriting inflation and budget-crushing gas prices are all riling up voters, particularly Republicans. And the left is starting to show signs of panic.
Midterm elections are typically a bummer for the party in power. For the Democrats, will results be bad, very bad, or very, very bad? This year, metrics are indicating that the Democrats could see record losses. The Redistricting Score has flipped in the last month, from +5 for the Democrats to +5 for the Republicans. Judges saw through the gerrymandering and heavy-handed district-rigging tried by Marc Elias and his Democratic mob.
Besides the redistricting gains, there are many more indicators that the Republicans may pick up as many as 60 seats in the house and two or three in the Senate. First off, polling data. No President has lost less than 43 seats when their polling was below 50% approval. A recent Gallup poll showed Biden is hovering around 41%.
Polling of which party will take Congress is possibly the most telling indicator. It’s perceived as “too close to call” when the Democrats have a 5% edge. That’s because Democrat’s win by gaudy numbers in safe urban districts and Republicans win with lower percentages in districts they’re favored in. As of today, the RealClearPolitics poll of polls has the Republicans up 2%. That would indicate a decisive victory come election day. A mitigating factor could be, that Republicans actually did better in 2020 than anyone thought. So, you can’t pick up a seat you already have. But still, that may be a small factor.
Two swing states with important Senate races have seen significant voter registration gains for Republicans. Pennsylvania and Nevada both have reported large numbers of Democratic mutinies. Hispanics in particular are flipping. Numerous polling sources are reporting that the left can no longer depend on the Hispanic vote, in fact now half of Hispanic voters favor Republicans. What used to be safe Democratic seats in the Rio Grande Valley are no longer. Republican’s have won a handful of recent border-city mayoral races, that just a few years ago would be unthinkable. More than any other group, Hispanics are turned off by the hard jolt to the left being driven by the ruling, mainly Democratic elite. And it’s no secret. The sudden defection has sent shock waves through the party. They’ve called on George Soros, the Darth Vader of the left and he’s doing what he can. One of his activist funds just paid $80 million for 18 Spanish-speaking radio stations formerly owned by UniVision. That effort will be run by former Obama and Clinton stormtroopers. We’re not talking about a media buy here. A strident oracle of the left will actually own the stations and with it one can expect left leaning propaganda morning, noon and night. “Democrats bueno, Republicans malo.”
Another sign the left is feeling the heat, they are spending money in areas they didn’t think they needed to. Starting Monday, expect to start seeing some of the $21 million the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is pumping into 13 media markets to try to stanch the bleeding. And where is the most going? To Nevada, the state where they’ve seen the biggest shift in voter ID. And what group will be watching and listening to the largest number of ads? Hispanics. $1.5 million will be going to Spanish speaking radio and TV in Las Vegas.
And what might be the Democrat’s Hail Mary, will be also be coming this week, live and in color to your favorite channel, news or otherwise. The 1/6 hearings will kick off and with it you’ll be subjected to wall-to-wall coverage of what is likely the lefts last hope to turn the tide. Even though most of us know better, the committee Democrats will try to show the world how depraved and craven Republicans are with very little, if any opportunities for rebuttals or review of any of the evidence. In addition, the committee has hired a script writer and Hollywood director to try to provide a veneer of showmanship and professionalism. But to most Americans, it will likely be like putting lipstick on a pig. Committee members have claimed they had countless smoking guns to date, that have fizzled out. My prediction is that it will barely move the needle, if at all. Americans are so conditioned to the leftwing media bias, that those who favor the left are the only ones who will tune in. Others will just write it off as the shamelessly partisan spectacle that it is. The NYT, WaPo, CBS no longer enjoy their monopoly. They’ve been effectively neutered by their own hand, overplaying their role in what was once an objective enterprise.
Over the past month, Republicans moved the needle in their favor in 12 House races according to the Cook Political Report. Republicans have shown much more voter enthusiasm than Democrats in early primaries. In the Senate, GOP candidates in states expected to be close have moved in a positive direction in polling (JD Vance in Ohio, Blake Masters in Arizona and Adam Laxalt in Nevada).
So, that’s where we are. Polling numbers rarely improve for the President from May on, of a midterm election year. Bank on the Democrats to do whatever they can to try to stem the tide, legal or otherwise. Expect anything. Be surprised by nothing. The Silly Season is upon us.
Midterm Madness, An Early Analysis