This election cycle is getting to seem more and more like Groundhog Day. Three months before an election, this time the 2022 Midterms, polls seem to reflect a growing affinity for Democrats. And the pollsters that have the biggest Democrat rebound are tied to mostly left-leaning news outlets. They are doing their best to discourage the GOP voter from showing up. Remember, the media (and the polls they churn out) admit they don’t even try to be impartial anymore.
Two outfits lead the pack. Economist/YouGov is a notoriously left-wing UK-based outfit that never factors in American’s voting idiosyncrasies (I’ll share a few later in the piece) and the Morning Consult/Politico poll, is well, how you might guess a pro-Regime tainted poll would slant things. NBC News polling and Investors Business Daily/TIPP run a close second. They all have abysmal track records but it never seems to derail their efforts to continue to promote the Democrat Party.
There is one pollster who got it right two elections in a row. Robert Cahaly, the brains behind the Trafalgar poll recently forecasted what we might see on election night 2022. In 2016 Trump supporters were called “Deplorables” and other unflattering names. This was a major contributor to the “shy Trump voter” phenomenon that “most” polling missed which resulted in a major loss in public confidence for polling following the election.
In 2020 people who supported Trump or espoused conservative values out of step with “Woke” culture found themselves being “canceled” or “doxed”. This led to “hidden voters” that “most” polling under counted, therefore Trump support in key battleground states exceeded expectations. In 2020, Biden enjoyed an average lead of 5.5 points in Wisconsin and nine points in Michigan. Then-President Trump lost Wisconsin by less than 1 and Michigan by 3…both states polling numbers were off by over 5 points. It could much more during this cycle.
The Biden administration has essentially classified “MAGA Republicans” as a threat to democracy marshaling federal law enforcement to focus on them. This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate.
This new group is being called the “submerged voters”. They aren’t putting stickers on their cars, signs in their yards, posting their opinions, or even answering polls. At this point it’s fair to say that Biden’s pursuit of and attacks on “MAGA Republicans” has created an army of voters who will be virtually impossible to poll and more difficult still to estimate.
The 2022 Republican turnout will likely be higher than any of the polls or models are showing. All polls will understate the impact of these “submerged voters”. This year, the real results might even be more askew than past elections.
Overturning Roe v Wade is said to have energized the left-leaning voter, and passing the hilariously-named “Inflation Reduction Act” is being heavily touted by the Democrats and their willing abettors in the corporate media. But, to most American’s those issues pale when compared to rampant inflation, urban crime, open borders and the mind-boggling phenomenon of the left’s penchant for grooming young children. These are all issues the “submerged voter” finds repellent and there is a growing sense that they will show up in force on Election Day.
The RealClearPolitics Generic Ballot now has the Democrats at +1. I’ve stated a few times on this site that history shows that Democrats would need to be at +5 to hold their majority. That’s because most urban Democrat members of Congress win handily, or have no Republican opponent at all. While Republican leaning districts tend to have much closer races, hence the disparity.
For the House I am expecting a 30-35 member GOP pickup. The Senate is a little tougher to pick. Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona have tightened, Nevada is showing Republican Adam Laxalt leading as is Ron Johnson in Wisconsin. North Carolina, Ohio and Florida GOP Senate candidates are leading, but narrowly. I’m somewhere between a one-seat GOP pickup or it stays at 50-50. The final results will depend on how many “submerged voters” there are out there.
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There may be a reason why this might be the year of the “submerged voter”. Liberal elites have become insufferable, and most Americans see their hypocrisy. They are against a wall, but live in gated communities. They are for gun control, but have armed security. They destroy public education, but send their kids to private schools. They support mask mandates, but only servants wear them at their parties. They fully think they are morally superior and use it to justify their woke agenda. We’ll see if middle-America is as dismayed with the path the country is taking as some are predicting.
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